Florida Senate Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 Florida Senate election. Markets measure the percentage-point difference in valid votes between the first-place and second-place candidates across various candidate and margin brackets.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as mutually exclusive percentage-point margin brackets for the winning candidates. Because the election will yield a single final margin of victory, at most one market can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the winning candidate and the absolute difference between the top two candidates' vote shares (calculated as votes divided by total valid votes) match the specified percentage bracket, and No otherwise. If a margin falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. Specific alphabetical tiebreaking rules apply if candidates tie for the most votes. If results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, resolution goes to 'Other'. If a recount occurs before certification, markets remain open until results are official.

Key dates

• Expected election date: Nov 3, 2026 — Expected date of the 2026 Florida Special Senate election.
• Resolution cutoff date: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to 'Other'.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC