Florida Governor Election Margin of Victory

This event tracks the margin of victory in the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election. Each market measures whether the winning party or candidate secures victory within a specific percentage bracket based on official valid vote counts.

How the outcomes relate

The event is structured as a set of mutually exclusive margin brackets for the election result. Because the margin of victory resolves to a single percentage bracket, only one market can resolve Yes, while all other brackets resolve No.

How it resolves

Each market resolves to Yes if the official margin of victory—calculated as the absolute difference between the valid vote percentages of the top two candidates—falls within the specified bracket. If a value falls exactly between two brackets, it resolves to the higher bracket. If candidates tie for first place, specific alphabetical tiebreaking rules apply. If results are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET, the event resolves to Other. If a recount occurs before certification, resolution waits until the recount is completed and official.

Key dates

• Expected election date: Nov 3, 2026 — Expected date of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election.
• Definitive results deadline: Jun 30, 2027 — Results must be known definitively by 11:59 PM ET or the market resolves to Other.

Resolution source

Official results published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 18 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC