Balance of Power: 2028 Election

This event tracks the overall balance of power resulting from the 2028 US general election. Markets measure which political parties will win the presidency, control of the Senate, and control of the House of Representatives for the 121st Congress.

How the outcomes relate

The event consists of mutually exclusive combinations of party control across three government branches (Presidency, Senate, and House). Because each chamber and the presidency are assigned to a single party under the rules, at most one market outcome can resolve Yes.

How it resolves

Each market resolves Yes if the specific party combination for the Presidency, Senate, and House matches the election outcome; otherwise, it resolves No. The presidential winner is determined when AP, Fox News, and NBC all call the race for the same party, or otherwise by who is inaugurated. Senate and House control require a majority of voting seats (including caucusing independents), with specific tiebreakers: Senate ties go to the Vice President's party or the first selected President Pro Tempore, while House ties go to the party of the first elected Speaker.

Key dates

• Senate Election Schedule Cutoff: Oct 31, 2028 — Date by which regular and special Senate elections must be scheduled for inclusion.
• Independent Caucus Announcement Deadline: January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, after which unannounced independents are excluded from party counts.

Resolution source

Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC for the presidency; official state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and credible reporting consensus for Senate and House control.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 9 Nov 2026, 01:29 UTC