Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

This event tracks which political party will win control of the United States Senate and the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, covering combinations of party control across both chambers of the 120th Congress.

How the outcomes relate

Each market represents a distinct potential combination of party control across the Senate and House (or other configurations). Because chamber control is mutually exclusive based on seat majorities and tie-breaking rules, only one outcome can resolve Yes, while all other outcomes resolve No.

How it resolves

A market resolves Yes if its specific combination of party control in both the Senate and House occurs following the 2026 midterms. Senate control requires a majority of voting seats, or half the seats plus the Vice Presidency, or the party of the first selected President Pro Tempore if ambiguous. House control requires a majority of voting seats or the party of the first elected Speaker. Independents who caucus or announce intent to caucus with a party are counted toward that party. Seats won via runoff are included even if held after November 2026.

Key dates

• Senate elections inclusion cutoff: Oct 31, 2026 — Regular and special Senate elections scheduled as of this date are included.
• Midterm elections month: Elections scheduled for November 2026.
• Independent caucus announcement deadline: January 4th at 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year (2027).

Resolution source

Official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.

AI-generated analysis · google/gemini-3.7-flash · 17 Oct 2026, 14:29 UTC